Azerbaijan vs Russia: How Baku is Dismantling Moscow's Influence in the Caucasus
By Rafael Benavente
Azerbaijan vs Russia: How Baku is Dismantling Moscow's Influence in the Caucasus
Introduction
For decades, Russia has projected itself as the dominant power in the South Caucasus. But that status is rapidly unraveling. Azerbaijan, once viewed as a satellite in Moscow's geopolitical orbit, has emerged as a powerful and assertive state. A combination of historical grievances, modern military capabilities, energy diplomacy, and strategic alliances have enabled Baku to directly challenge Russian influence. From the Nagorno-Karabakh wars to a growing gas rivalry and accusations of ethnic persecution, the relationship between the two countries has shifted from pragmatic cooperation to open confrontation.
I. Wounds of the Past: From Stalin to Khojaly
Azerbaijan’s distrust of Russia is deeply rooted in the 20th century. After being absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1920, Azerbaijan lost autonomy and saw its territorial integrity manipulated. The contentious decision by Stalin to assign the mostly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region to the Azerbaijani SSR was driven by geopolitical calculations, particularly Soviet-Turkish cooperation. But this "divide and conquer" policy left behind deep scars.
Things worsened during World War II. In a brutal population exchange, Stalin forcibly deported thousands of ethnic Azeris from Armenia to make room for repatriated Armenians from Iran. These actions cemented a legacy of resentment, exacerbated by continued Soviet favoritism toward Armenia and suppression of Azerbaijani identity.
The final betrayal came during the waning years of the USSR. In 1990, Soviet troops stormed Baku to suppress rising calls for independence, killing and injuring civilians. Known as Black January, the event galvanized nationalist sentiment. But perhaps the most painful episode was the 1992 Khojaly massacre, during which Armenian and reportedly Russian forces killed at least 160 Azerbaijani civilians. This atrocity during the Nagorno-Karabakh war would define Azerbaijan’s view of Russia for decades.
II. Azerbaijan’s Rise and Moscow’s Retreat
Following independence in 1991, Azerbaijan entered a period of chaos. A brief nationalist government under Abulfaz Elchibey sought alignment with the West and Turkey, angering Moscow. But after military setbacks and internal dissent, Heydar Aliyev, a former Soviet Politburo member, took power in 1993. Aliyev opted for pragmatism, rejoining the Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) while pursuing Western investment, particularly in oil and gas.
Baku’s second oil boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s transformed the country. With Western companies pouring billions into the Caspian Basin, Azerbaijan's economy surged. Its GDP multiplied sixfold from 1994 to the present. With wealth came strength: the military was modernized, the government consolidated control, and foreign alliances expanded. Russia, bogged down in domestic challenges and increasingly distracted by the West, lost strategic ground in the region.
III. The Karabakh Wars: Breaking Point
The heart of Azerbaijan’s grievance with Russia lies in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. After the first war ended in 1994 with Armenia occupying around 14% of Azerbaijan’s territory, Moscow was seen as a silent partner to Yerevan. Despite formal neutrality, Russia provided arms and military advisors to Armenia. This betrayal festered until Azerbaijan felt strong enough to act.
In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a 44-day war to reclaim its lands, supported diplomatically and militarily by Turkey. Advanced Turkish and Israeli drones gave Baku a decisive edge. The result: Azerbaijan recaptured large swaths of territory. Russia intervened only to broker a ceasefire—too late to stop Armenia’s defeat. Azerbaijan allowed limited Russian peacekeepers into the region, but the message was clear: Baku no longer needed Moscow to settle regional disputes.
IV. The Final Offensive and Armenia’s Exit from the CSTO
Russia’s image as a protector collapsed completely in 2023. With Putin’s forces bogged down in Ukraine, Azerbaijan launched a 24-hour blitz to reclaim the rest of Karabakh. Armenian separatists surrendered, and Russian peacekeepers stood aside. Armenia, humiliated and feeling betrayed, formally exited the Russian-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and pivoted to the West.
By 2024, Armenia had signed a strategic partnership agreement with the United States and voiced its ambition to join the European Union. Moscow’s worst fear—a pro-Western Armenia—was now reality. In desperation, Russian intelligence reportedly attempted a coup in Yerevan, which was foiled by Armenian security forces.
V. Direct Clashes: Espionage, Journalism, and Persecution
The rivalry has escalated into covert warfare. After two Azerbaijani citizens died under suspicious circumstances in Russian police custody in 2024, Baku retaliated by raiding the offices of Sputnik, the Russian state news agency. Accused of espionage, Russian journalists and FSB-linked agents were arrested and expelled.
In response, Russia launched mass detentions of ethnic Azeris in cities like Ekaterinburg and Moscow. Many were given a grim choice: enlist to fight in Ukraine or face deportation or imprisonment. When two Azeris died under torture, Baku erupted in outrage. This wasn’t just a diplomatic row—it was an ethnic standoff.
VI. The Energy Front: Gas, Europe, and Cold War 2.0
Energy competition is another battlefield. Azerbaijan has become a vital gas supplier to the European Union, especially after the war in Ukraine forced Europe to reduce dependence on Russian energy. In 2022, Azerbaijani gas accounted for 2% of EU imports. By 2024, it had reached 7%, and projections show 20 billion cubic meters annually by 2027.
Backed by Turkey, Baku is working to expand the Southern Gas Corridor, including the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). These lines offer a cheaper, more stable alternative to Russian gas. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has seen its share of the market shrink—and its geopolitical leverage with it.
VII. A Foiled Coup? Putin’s Desperation
The loss of Karabakh and Armenia’s drift westward were too much for Moscow to accept quietly. Armenian prosecutors revealed in 2024 that Russian operatives attempted to fund and organize an armed uprising to topple the pro-European government of Nikol Pashinyan. The attempt failed, but the message was clear: Putin will use any means to reassert dominance.
Yet these tactics may only accelerate Russia’s decline. Instead of regaining Armenia’s trust, they pushed Yerevan further into the arms of the West. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan gained even more credibility as a capable, sovereign power able to protect its interests without Kremlin interference.
VIII. A New Caucasus Order
Today, Azerbaijan is not only negotiating directly with Armenia but doing so in forums that exclude Russia. In 2024, leaders from both countries met in Abu Dhabi under Emirati mediation. The goal: a final peace agreement that does not involve Moscow. The symbolism is powerful—Russia is no longer the arbiter of the Caucasus.
Baku has emerged as the region’s most assertive state, with the military capability, energy wealth, and diplomatic backing to reshape the landscape. Meanwhile, Russia is seen as unreliable by both Armenia and Azerbaijan. The era of Russian supremacy in the Caucasus appears to be over.
Conclusion: The New Guardian of the Caucasus?
Azerbaijan’s confrontation with Russia reflects broader shifts in global power. In a multipolar world, smaller nations are learning to navigate beyond traditional alliances. By asserting sovereignty, embracing modernization, and building strategic partnerships, Baku has achieved what once seemed impossible: challenging Moscow and winning.
But challenges remain. Managing relations with Turkey, balancing energy diplomacy with the EU, and ensuring peace with Armenia will test Baku’s statecraft. Still, the trajectory is clear—Azerbaijan is no longer a pawn in Russia’s imperial game. It is now a player in its own right.
Reflective Questions
Can Azerbaijan maintain its rise without overextending diplomatically or militarily?
Is Erdogan the true architect behind Baku’s transformation?
How will Russia respond if it loses the Caucasus entirely?
Will other post-Soviet states follow the Azerbaijani model?
The answers to these questions will shape the next chapter of the post-Soviet world—and the future of a volatile, strategic region.
By Rafael Benavente
Legal Record Update:
The case Decimal Capital Partners LLC vs Rafael Benavente, filed under number 2023-018206-CA-01, appears on multiple aggregator sites such as Trellis.law. This blog addresses what’s often missing in those listings—context, resolution, and the reality behind the legal headlines.